Center for Structured Expert Judgment &

Environmental Uncertainty Quantification 

June 20,  2023    

       Prof. Roger M. Cooke   

Resources for the Future     

Prof. Thomas A. Mazzuchi

Systems Engineering, George Washington University

Prof Willy Aspinall

Bristol University

Prof Tina Nane

Delft University of Technology

                                     Promotional Material


Principal Supporting Institutions

Resources for the Future (R.M.Cooke)

Bristol U (Willy Aspinall)

Systems Engineering GW University (T.A.Mazzuchi)

Delft University of Technology (T.Nane)

Engineering and Public Policy Carnegie Mellon (M.G. Morgan)

Harvard University (John S. Evans)

University of Strathclyde (T. Bedford)

Imperial College (M.Burgman)

Princeton Univeristy (M.Oppenheimer)








Recent Blogs & Links:

Seminars Structured Expert Judgment

Special Sauce, blog for Int'l J Forecasting article

Princeton Press Release expert judgment, Nature Climate

European Cooperation in Science and Technology Expert Judgment Network  Bridging the Gap Between Scientific Uncertainty and Evidence-Based Decision Making

Expert Judgment Respectability Looming

Wiki page Stuctured Expert Judgment

The Iceman Cometh blog SEJ and Sea Level Rise

Aquila Earth quake, scientists get 6 years in prison


Publications by Area


Ecosystems & Public Health

Civil Aviation & Structural Reliability

Natural Hazards

Nuclear Safety

Banking, Finance, Cyber Security

Selected Structured Expert Judgment papers:

Social Cost of Carbon SEJ & Appendix

Likelihood of Aso4-scale eruption  RMEGV2021

Marti PhD, GWU Experts' Cognitive Processes

Int'l J Forecasting Expert forecasting  & SI

I.J. Risk Ass't & Man't Carbon cap & geo storage,

REEP Validation for Classical Model

RESS Cross Validation & Elicitation,

Comp & OR Quantifying Info Security Risks

PNAS SEJ ice sheets

BMJ  Impact of Brexit on UK food prices

Frontiers Earth Science Prob'stic forecast White Island

J Risk Research Tectonic risks in Japan

PLoS 1  Evaluation of Performance: WHO SEJ study of    global burden of disease

Elementa Stormwater Management in Chesapeake Bay; SEJ

Cons Bio Impacts of Asian Carp Invasion Lake Erie -  SEJ

RFF SEJ Breast Feeding and IQ & AStA

RFF SEJ IQ and Earnings

 Applications by Field

More publications


Deciding under Uncertainty, Cooke@RFF (10 mins)

The Confidence Trap (13 mins)

SEJ Intro (9 mins)

SEJ Validation (25 mins)

SEJ for Ice Sheets (10 mins)

Probabilistic reasoning:  Climate Sensitivity (15 mins)




Software            Online Course

EXCALIBUR                   SEJ TU Delft




43 pre 2009 studies

55 post 2006 studies