|
Center for Structured Expert Judgment
& Environmental Uncertainty
Quantification May 23, 2025 |
|
|
|
Resources for the Future Systems Engineering, George Washington University |
|
Bristol University |
|
Prof Tina
Nane, Prof Oswaldo Morales Delft University of Technology |
|
Principal Supporting Institutions Resources for the Future (R.M.Cooke) Bristol U (Willy Aspinall) Systems Engineering GW University (T.A.Mazzuchi) Delft University of Technology (T.Nane) Harvard University (John S. Evans) University of Strathclyde (T. Bedford) Imperial College (M.Burgman) Princeton Univeristy (M.Oppenheimer)
|
Recent Blogs & Links:
Seminars Structured Expert Judgment
Special Sauce, blog for Int'l J Forecasting article
Princeton Press Release expert judgment, Nature Climate
European Cooperation in Science and Technology Expert Judgment Network Bridging the Gap Between Scientific Uncertainty and Evidence-Based Decision Making
Expert Judgment Respectability Looming
Wiki page Stuctured Expert Judgment
The Iceman Cometh blog SEJ and Sea Level Rise
Aquila Earth quake, scientists get 6 years in prison
Publications by Area
Civil Aviation & Structural Reliability
Banking, Finance, Cyber Security
Selected Structured Expert Judgment papers:
Wisdom
or Madness: wisdom of crowds?
Social Cost of Carbon SEJ & Appendix
Likelihood of Aso4-scale eruption RMEGV2021
Marti PhD, GWU Experts' Cognitive Processes
Int'l J Forecasting Expert forecasting & SI
I.J. Risk Ass't & Man't Carbon cap & geo storage,
REEP Validation
for Classical Model
RESS Cross Validation & Elicitation,
Comp & OR Quantifying Info Security Risks
BMJ Impact of Brexit on UK food prices
Frontiers Earth Science Prob'stic forecast White Island
J Risk Research Tectonic risks in Japan
PLoS 1 Evaluation of Performance: WHO SEJ study of global burden of disease
Elementa Stormwater Management in Chesapeake Bay; SEJ
Cons Bio Impacts of Asian Carp Invasion Lake Erie - SEJ
RFF SEJ Breast Feeding and IQ & AStA
Applications by Field
Video's
Deciding under Uncertainty, Cooke@RFF (10 mins)
The Confidence Trap (13 mins)
SEJ Intro (9 mins)
SEJ Validation (25 mins)
Probabilistic reasoning: Climate Sensitivity (15 mins)
Software Online Course
SEJ DATA